Zimbabwe: The Numbers Don’t Lie – Zanu-PF Would Have to Defy the Reality of Political Economy to Win the Next Election


The political economy and the views of citizens have an intimate relationship, and it is exceedingly rare that any regime in charge of a government survives at the polls when every indicator of its performance suggests abject failure.

Tony Reeler is co-convener of the Platform for Concerned Citizens and consultant senior researcher at the Research and Advocacy Unit.

When Zimbabwe enters the pre-election circus, usually two years before elections are due, and the Afrobarometer produces a survey, the only interest the survey generates is in the estimates of which political party is the most popular.

Generally everyone ignores the rest of the data in the survey, data that can inform a more robust political economy analysis about what should actually happen. This is not trivial, because the political economy and the views of citizens have an intimate relationship, and it is exceedingly rare that any regime in charge of a government survives at the polls when every indicator of its performance suggests abject failure.

For example, in 2012, the Research and Advocacy Unit (RAU) pointed out that there were three factors that should predict Robert Mugabe’s loss in the 2013 poll, factors that operated in a number of other African…

ADVERTISEMENT



Source link : https://allafrica.com/stories/202107090900.html

Author :

Publish date : 2021-07-09 16:05:43

share on: